St. Paul, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

179
FXUS63 KMPX 260709
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through the forecast period, with
  today likely the hottest with low 90s possible.

- Chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday, then a prolonged
  dry pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed from eastern Yellow
Medicine County southeastward into north central IA early this
morning on the leading edge of richer pwats. These storms will
continue working northeast during the next several hours toward
the MN River Valley before likely dissipating mid morning. Some
of the storms may contain hail. A boundary shifted north around
midnight and temperatures jumped 5 to 10 degrees quickly behind
it with MSP still sitting at 77 degrees as of 145 AM. It will
be another very warm day today with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lower 90s may be more widespread if residual cloud
cover from morning convection is minimized and redevelopment of
convection holds off until late in the day. MUCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg is expected to develop as the day progresses thanks to
steep mid level lapse rates and pwats increasing to 1.5 inches.
Shear will be quite weak so convection will not be particularly
organized. However, some large hail is possible with the
stronger updrafts given the steep mid lapse rates and moderate
to strong CAPE. Gusty winds are also possible given the
relatively dry layer below 10 kft. Initial development may occur
by mid afternoon. Several outflow boundaries from initial
activity may act as a focus for additional development. Coverage
will peak in the early to mid evening before nocturnal
stabilization begins to decay convection thereafter. A backdoor
cold front will make southwestward progress Wednesday to the
Mississippi River late Wednesday afternoon. Additional
development may occur along it and ahead of it during peak
heating, but coverage will be more isolated than today.

High pressure will build south into the Great Lakes late week
through early next week. Surface winds will shift easterly and
much drier air will work in, ending the shower and thunderstorm
chances for a while. Temperatures will remain warm in the low to
mid 80s each day, ending May on a much warmer note.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Isolated thunderstorms have developed at TAF issuance time along
the IA/MN border southwest of MKT. This activity should spread
north overnight toward MKT and RWF and may persist through mid
morning before dissipating. Additional showers and storms are
likely to develop late in the day and this evening, but
coverage, timing, and location are of low confidence so kept any
mention of this round out of the TAFs for now. It may need to be
added for the 12Z issuance if confidence increases.

KMSP...Showers and storms should remain south overnight.
Additional TS may develop at any time later this afternoon and
evening. While the current TAF is optimistic, once details
become a bit clearer TS will likely be introduced in some form
in a future update.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc aftn -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff